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kaitherusher
kaitherusher
22.10.2020 • 
Mathematics

For each question, show what calculator command you entered to get your result. Drawing pictures of each distribution is highly recommended. Contact me for help and clues! A poll is taken of 800 Florida registered voters concerning the presidential race between incumbent Ann Anderson and challenger Bob Bobson. The breakdown of the sample is as follows:

Voting for Anderson: 472 voters
Voting for Bobson: 273 voters
Voting for third-party candidate: 42 voters
Undecided: 13 voters

TOTAL 800 voters

Give a point estimate for the proportion of Florida registered voters who plan to vote for President Anderson.

Give a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of Florida registered voters who plan to vote for President Anderson.

Give a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of Florida registered voters who plan to vote for Bobson.

What is the margin of error for this poll, rounded to the nearest percentage point? (Your answers from ii and iii may differ, but they will round to the same percentage.)

An analysis of several polls suggests that 60% of all Florida voters plan to vote for Anderson.
A poll of 250 randomly selected Florida voters shows that 144 plan to vote for Anderson. What is the probability of this result (i.e. 144 voters or less out of 250) happening by chance, assuming the aggregate poll model proportion of 60% is correct?

Does your result from part I indicate that the number of voters who plan to vote for Anderson has decreased? In other words, is this outcome unusual? (Recall that an unusual event has a probability of 0.05 or less of occurring.)

A partisan Florida Web site posts the question “Who do you plan to vote for in the upcoming election?” on their home page, and visitors are invited to pick between Anderson and Bobson. Out of 1505 visitors to their page, 832 of them plan to vote for Anderson. Assuming once more that 60% of Florida voters plan on voting for Anderson, is this outcome (i.e. a proportion of 832/1505 voters or less voting for Anderson) unusual?

Give a reason why the results of the poll from part III may have been unusual. (“Because the probability is less than 0.05” is not a reason, it’s a definition.)

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