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jonesmegan526
18.06.2020 •
Mathematics
Marie is getting married tomorrow, at an outdoor ceremony in the desert. In recent years, it has rained only 5 days each year. Unfortunately, the weatherman has predicted rain for tomorrow. When it actually rains, the weatherman correctly forecasts rain 90% of the time. When it doesn't rain, he incorrectly forecasts rain 10% of the time. What is the probability that it will rain on the day of Marie's wedding, given the weatherman forecasts rain
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Ответ:
11.11% probability that it will rain on the day of Marie's wedding, given the weatherman forecasts rain
Step-by-step explanation:
Bayes Theorem:
Two events, A and B.
In which P(B|A) is the probability of B happening when A has happened and P(A|B) is the probability of A happening when B has happened.
In this question:
Event A: Forecast of rain.
Event B: Raining.
In recent years, it has rained only 5 days each year.
A year has 365 days. So
When it actually rains, the weatherman correctly forecasts rain 90% of the time.
This means that![P(A|B) = 0.9](/tpl/images/0689/0064/cdc3e.png)
Probability of forecast of rain:
90% of 0.0137(forecast and rains)
10% of 1 - 0.0137 = 0.9863(forecast, but does not rain)
What is the probability that it will rain on the day of Marie's wedding, given the weatherman forecasts rain
11.11% probability that it will rain on the day of Marie's wedding, given the weatherman forecasts rain
Ответ:
4n
Step-by-step explanation:
I don't know if I did it right but I hope I did sorry if wrong