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06.05.2020 •
Mathematics
The ELISA test was an early test used to screen blood donations for antibodies to HIV. A study (Weiss et al. 1985) found that the conditional probability that a person would test positive given they have HIV was 0.979 and the conditional probability that a person would test negative given they did not have HIV was 0.919. The World Almanac gives an estimate of the probability of a person 15 years or older in the United States of America having HIV of 0.005.Suppose a random person is tested and they test positive. What is the conditional probability that this person has HIV given that they test positive
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Ответ:
0.057258
Step-by-step explanation:
From the statement of the problem, the following information were given:
P(Positive|HIV)=0.979P(Negative|No HIV)=0.919P(HIV)=0.005The following can be derived:
P(Positive|No HIV)=1-P(Negative|No HIV)=1-0.919=0.081P(No HIV)=1-P(HIV)=1-0.005=0.995We are to determine the probability that a person has HIV given that they test positive. [P(HIV|Positive)]
Using Baye's theorem for Conditional Probability
The probability that a random person tested has HIV given that they tested positive is 0.057258.
Ответ: