![ultimatesaiyan](/avatars/23198.jpg)
ultimatesaiyan
31.10.2021 •
Mathematics
Dolon Web Security Consultants requries all job applicants to submit to a test for illegal drugs. If the applicant has used illegal drugs, the test has 90 percent chance of a positive result. If the applicant has not used illegal drugs, the test has an 85 percent chance of negative result. Actually, 4 percent of the job applicants have used illegal drugs. If an applicant has a positive test, what is the probability that he or she has actually used illegal drugs
Solved
Show answers
More tips
- H Health and Medicine Simple and Effective: How to Get Rid of Cracked Heels...
- O Other How to Choose the Best Answer to Your Question on The Grand Question ?...
- L Leisure and Entertainment History of International Women s Day: When Did the Celebration of March 8th Begin?...
- S Style and Beauty Intimate Haircut: The Reasons, Popularity, and Risks...
- A Art and Culture When Will Eurovision 2011 Take Place?...
- S Style and Beauty How to Choose the Perfect Hair Straightener?...
- F Family and Home Why Having Pets at Home is Good for Your Health...
- H Health and Medicine How to perform artificial respiration?...
- H Health and Medicine 10 Tips for Avoiding Vitamin Deficiency...
- F Food and Cooking How to Properly Cook Buckwheat?...
Ответ:
20 percent
Step-by-step explanation:
P(Used illegal drugs) = 4%
P(+ test | Used illegal drugs) = 90%
P(- test | Has not Used illegal drugs) = 85%
P(+ test ) =
P(+ test and Used illegal drugs) + P(+ test and Has not used Illegal drugs) =
[ P(+ test | Used illegal drugs) * P(Used illegal drugs) ] + [ P(+ test | Has not Used illegal drugs) * P(Has not Used illegal drugs) ],
since
P(+ test and Used illegal drugs) = P(+ test | Used illegal drugs) * P(Used illegal drugs)
P(+ test and Has not used illegal drugs) =P(+ test | Has not Used illegal drugs) * P(Has not Used illegal drugs)
Thus,
P(+ test ) =
[ (90%)(4%) ] + [ (100% - 85%)(100% - 4%) ] =
0.9*.04 + .15*.96 =
0.18
and,
we want
P(Used illegal drugs | + test),
and
P(Used illegal drugs and + test) = P(+ test | Used illegal drugs) * P(Used illegal drugs) = 0.9*0.04 = 0.036
and we have that
P(Used illegal drugs and + test) = P(Used illegal drugs | + test) * P(+test)
so that
0.036 = P(Used illegal drugs | + test) * 0.18
so that
P(Used illegal drugs |+ test) =
0.036 / 0.18 =
0.2 =
20 percent
Ответ: